VISI.NEWS | BANDUNG – Despite Bitcoin posting a modest 2% gain over the past week, on-chain data suggests that calm waters may be deceiving. Below the surface, large holders—commonly referred to as “whales”—have begun moving significant amounts of BTC to exchanges, signaling potential short-term selling pressure.
On July 17, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC (whales), along with those holding over 10,000 BTC (mega whales), collectively transferred approximately 50,200 BTC to centralized exchanges. At current prices near $120,000, this translates to over $6 billion in potential sell-side liquidity—a move that historically precedes price corrections.
Similar behavior occurred earlier this month. On July 7, a deposit of 2,500 BTC coincided with a $947 drop in BTC’s value, while inflows of over 33,000 BTC on July 15 led to a 1.7% decline. The latest whale transfer is the largest in over a month, suggesting renewed distribution pressure as Bitcoin struggles to break past its recent high.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, short-term holders appear to be locking in profits. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders rose to 1.05 on July 16—its highest level in over a month—indicating that most of these investors are selling at a profit. Although SOPR has slightly cooled to 1.02 since then, it remains elevated and reflects potential market hesitation.
Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating in a tight range between $117,293 and $123,203, with the lower bound acting as strong short-term support. If current whale inflow patterns repeat June’s behavior—when 33,663 BTC flowed to exchanges leading to a 1.7% price dip—the market could see a 2.5–3% correction, potentially pushing BTC down to the $117,000 level.
If this support level fails, the next key floor lies around $113,637 based on Fibonacci extension levels. However, if whale deposits begin to decline and the SOPR metric cools toward 1.00, bullish momentum could return. A break above $123,203 would likely invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s broader uptrend. @ffr
