VISI.NEWS | BANDUNG – Bitcoin surged nearly 3% on Thursday, reaching a record high of $112,000 (approximately Rp1.81 billion), driven by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates later this month or by year-end.
The rally came hours after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its June meeting minutes, which revealed that most Fed officials foresee at least one rate cut in 2025. Some even signaled the possibility of a cut as early as July 30, depending on inflation data.
“This spike suggests that crypto investors are starting to price in a more accommodative monetary policy, which could boost market liquidity,” said Tokocrypto analyst Fyqieh Fachrur.
Fyqieh noted that the $112,000 mark is a key psychological level. If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could test resistance zones between $115,000 and $118,000.
Increased optimism surrounding Fed easing has also triggered stronger demand for U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. On July 9, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $80.6 million, contributing to Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Despite growing institutional and long-term investor interest, analysts warn that spot trading volume remains relatively weak, especially from retail participants. This raises questions about the sustainability of the rally.
Eyes now turn to the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due July 11 and the Fed’s interest rate decision on July 30—both seen as pivotal in determining the near-term path of monetary policy.
“The CPI will be a key indicator. If inflation continues to cool, the chances of a rate cut improve significantly, which would further support positive sentiment toward crypto assets,” Fyqieh added.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin appears bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50 and the MACD in positive territory. However, failure to hold above $112,500 could lead to a correction, with support seen at $110,800 and $109,750.
Meanwhile, global economic uncertainty and political factors, including potential inflationary pressures from U.S. trade tariffs under former President Donald Trump, remain on the radar. Despite Trump’s denial of any inflationary impact, Fed officials remain cautious.
Overall, Bitcoin’s latest breakout reflects more than market enthusiasm—it underscores renewed belief in the cryptocurrency’s role as a hedge in times of economic uncertainty. @ffr
